I usually do my mock drafts differently than the standard method, in that my team-prospect pairings are predicated on optimizing for wins in the upcoming season in an organized manner. Here’s a quick overview of my process:I use the best available information about free agency, which is currently little more than what we know about player contracts, to forecast players’ market values.
I then compare free agents’ predicted market value to each team’s anticipated salary-cap space. Finally, I assign potential free agents or drafted players to various teams and determine which individuals boost teams’ projected win total the most. (My player model predicts NFL success using historical pre-draft player data.)
I’m starting this process early again this year, which is great because I’m excited to see how things change with free agency and the draft process. A little housework: My player evaluations included computer vision-derived measurements and numbers, and all of my speed, burst, and advance tracking notes are based on on-field game speed metrics.As of this writing, the draft order for picks 1-30 is set. The sequence of picks 31-32 will be determined by the results of Super Bowl LVIII. These picks are ranked in this mock based on regular-season record, with strength of schedule serving as the tiebreaker.
In this hypothetical scenario, the Bears retain Justin Fields and select this high-floor (aka low-risk) LT candidate who has experience but is also young (20 years old) and has a lot of upside. Alt recently passed receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., making an immediate impact for the Bears’ offensive line, which allowed their quarterbacks to be harassed at the highest rate in the league last season (45.1 percent). This demonstrates the worth of the Bears’ first-round equity, which allows them to move across the board if necessary.
Beginning on February 29, NFL Network and NFL+ will broadcast live coverage of the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine.
Williams’ reunion with his old USC coach, Kliff Kingsbury (now Washington’s offensive coordinator), makes this a more promising match than it would have been a week ago (before Kingsbury was hired). I’m not sure about the gap some see between the quarterbacks in this year’s selection, but my opinion boils down to refinements in styles, opponents, organizational infrastructure, and so on for the top two, and possibly the top three.
