The number of NFL free agency signings and transactions has been so high that some have gone unnoticed.
The addition of Curtis Samuel to the Buffalo Bills is one such event.
To work with offensive coordinator Joe Brady again—he had the same position with the Carolina Panthers in 2020 and 2021—the seasoned wide receiver inked a three-year, $24 million contract. Only the 2020 campaign saw Brady and Samuel together in Carolina, but it was the best season of Samuel’s career as a pro, as he finished with a career-high 77 catches for 851 yards and three touchdowns.
The Buffalo Bills have to sign this. Other than Khalil Shakir and Stefon Diggs, they don’t have much in their receiving room after losing Gabe Davis to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Samuel is a highly adaptable and dynamic player who can set up shop anywhere on the pitch.
He’ll be a valuable asset to the Bills and Josh Allen.
However, his fit calls for a grade and more research into the signing. Assessing Curtis in Bills Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver for the Washington Commanders, 4, scores a touchdown on a one-yard run in the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Samuel signed. Required Credit: USA TODAY Sports/Eric Hartline
Curtis Samuel is a more well-rounded player who can benefit Buffalo in ways that Gabe Davis was never able to, making him a totally different player altogether. The evidence supports it.
For the most part, Davis served as the Bills’ field stretcher and depended excessively on Allen to find him deep. Eighth among all wide receivers, his average depth of target was 15 yards downfield, per playerprofiler.com.
Davis’ average depth of target in 2022 was 15.2 yards, while the previous year it was 13.4. It looks like Davis’s only available arrow is to go deep.
That set Davis up for some huge games. His 201-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round will live in infamy.
But he also produced some duds due to his playing style and position in Buffalo’s attack.
In Buffalo, Davis had four more games with zero yards than he did with three hundred yards. He was unable to penalize defenders in numerous ways, which gave them the opportunity to remove Davis as a serious threat and send assistance to Diggs to ensure he didn’t burn them either.
With Samuel in his place, things ought to be different today. Matt Harmon of Yahoo! Sports reported that in 2023, Davis’ success rate against man coverage was 53.8%.That was below his database’s 31st percentile. But last season, Samuel’s finished in the 88th percentile against man coverage.
In this Bills scheme, Samuel may pretend to be the deep danger that Davis once was. Even though he wasn’t used that way in Washington for the previous three seasons, he was utilized that way while he was in Carolina.
Among wide receivers in 2019, Samuel’s average depth of target was 14.4 yards, good for 18th place. He achieved the eighth-most deep targets in that sector with 27. His play at quarterback was the issue.
Among wide receivers that season, Samuel’s target quality rating was ranked 101st, and only 62.6% of his targets were judged catchable. That will occur if he is thrown the ball by quarterbacks such as Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, and an ailing Cam Newton. Allen shouldn’t have any problems with it.
In the short-to intermediate-range passing game, Samuel is also capable of winning and adding value. Despite only hitting the target at an average depth of 6.6 yards in 2023, he still managed to average 1.51 yards per route run. That’s not a terrific figure, but it’s very impressive given his role and the competition he faces for targets.
In addition, he gained 260 yards after the catch, good for 39th place among receivers.Although Davis was a fantastic player for the Bills, Samuel is a better option.
Buffalo will pay less for him as well. With the Jaguars, Davis inked a three-year, $39 million contract with a $24 million guarantee. Samuel received $24 million, with the potential to reach $30 million if he meets specific targets over the same time frame, although only $15 million was assured. The Bills did an excellent job with that.
Buffalo’s offensive needed to be more adaptable. Through Curtis Samuel, they succeeded. In addition, they were able to sign him for less money than some of the other receivers.
For both them and Samuel, this was a huge event. I hope he looks even better on the field in Buffalo as he does here.
