The Green Bay Packers had a lot more questions than answers at this time last year. The 2023 season was designed to assess young talent and, most importantly, to find out if Jordan Love had what it took to be a franchise quarterback.
Brian Gutekunst, the general manager, was hesitant to recruit veterans through free agency since doing so would mean depriving younger players of playing time.
They also lacked the funds to accomplish this. Four days after the league’s legal tampering window opened, they signed long snapper Joe Fortunato, making their first free agency signing.
The Packers were among the teams with the greatest activity on the first day of free agency a year later.
They have every reason to believe that Love is their franchise quarterback and are also quite bullish about the players surrounding him.
Gutekunst frequently discusses using three-year windows as a framework for understanding roster construction.
With Love as the starter, the 2024 season will mark the second year in the first window.
Interpreting the Packers’ early actions in NFL free agency with caution, the front office is actively trying to maximize the next two years, during which the majority of their core players are still young and cheap.
The Packers had the youngest roster in the NFL prior to free agency, and they only made the decision to further emphasize youth by cutting three of their four oldest players—Aaron Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and David Bahktiari.
Josh Jacobs, 26, took over for the 29-year-old Jones. They replaced safety Darnell Savage, 26, who was a free agent, with 24-year-old Xavier McKinney.
The majority of organizations try to go “all-in” by assembling a superteam around young quarterbacks prior to having to provide them high-end compensation.
The Packers won’t be able to afford that as they’ll probably offer Love a long-term contract this May.
Nonetheless, they ought to gain from the majority of their offensive players still being in their rookie contracts. In 2023, the Packers used 23 players to account for at least 10% of the offensive snaps.
Thirteen members of the group—including the top six receiving targets—will be on rookie contracts in 2024.
Last year, the Packers’ offense had the lowest salary cap hit of any team in the NFL at $88.09 million.
It is anticipated to decline to roughly $67 million in 2024. The offense’s average age is only 24.2 years old.
For Jacobs, it’s a contract that resembles the one that the Packers signed 26-year-old Jones to in 2021.
Following a 1,100-yard campaign in 2022, the Packers restructured Jones’ contract in order to reduce his 2023 salary cap charge from $20 million to approximately $8 million.
If Jacobs is to stay with the Packers into 2025, he’ll probably need to produce at a level comparable to that of Jones and exhibit minimal regression.
Jacobs’ future will also be greatly influenced by how the Packers choose to use their potential first-round running back picks in this year’s draft.
It appears like McKinney fits better within the Packers’ long-term goals. Of the $67 million contract he signed, two thirds ($23 million) are guaranteed.
A defense in desperate need of a safety will benefit greatly from McKinney’s arrival.
The Packers’ front office appears to be counting on everything coming together in 2025, based on the specifics of the two acquisitions and the three veteran releases.
The 2022 draft class’s rookie contracts expire this year.
Linebacker Quay Walker, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and offensive lineman Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Rasheed Walker are also part of the strong free agency class.
For those starters, the total cap impact in 2025 will only be close to $16.4 million.
The low-cost offense gave the team the leeway to bring in McKinney and Jacobs, two aggressive acquisitions. Examining the two contracts past the sticker price is intriguing.
Only $12.5 million of Jacobs’ four-year contract, which has a maximum value of $48 million, is guaranteed.
After the 2025 season, the Packers may easily dismiss Jacobs without facing any substantial dead money against the cap.
In 2024, realistic expectations would be that the defense, led by first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, would have to navigate the learning curve of switching to a new basic system.
Strangely enough, the hiring of Dom Capers in 2009—the second season Aaron Rodgers started as quarterback—marked the last time the Packers altered their fundamental defensive strategy.
Though coach Matt LaFleur will have to contend with the fact that the other teams in the league have access to a complete season’s worth of film to study Love and the rest of the offense, it is likely that the offense will continue to progress faster than anticipated.
However, by 2025, the offense will have gained two complete seasons of experience, and the defense will have experienced one season.
The team’s current roster strategy is most definitely not what most would call “all-in” for the upcoming two seasons.
However, it’s clear that the front management sees their tiny window of opportunity with a cheap offense that has a lot of promise.
